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Why House Prices Aren’t Going Down

By Shane Geha | Housing Affordability |

Whilst the latest CoreLogic results indicate a pullback and gradual slowing down of the Sydney housing market, which is indeed weighing down the broader market - it is my view that we will see a return to continued growth across our major cities over the medium-to-long-term.

I was recently discussing the subject of cities and growth with a parliamentarian who subscribed to the old Bob Carr and Dick Smith view that not all growth is good and that our cities may have already reached their optimal number of residents. But many people disagree and I totally disagree. As I respectfully explained to my parliamentary friend, there are certainly consequences to growth but there are far greater consequences to no growth. Just ask the Japanese, who have suffered negative population growth and asset price deflation for over 20 years now. It is not a pretty picture.

In fact, in my view, it is only growth that can keep an economy alive and a workforce active for new job seekers. Growth is also supremely important for the renewal of cities, the revitalisation of old and obsolete industries and for the repositioning of our smart and innovative nation into the world’s new order.

Central to growth, remains our still-very-well-positioned policy of active immigration. And this is vital because immigration still makes up the bulk of our current 1.5% growth rate, which is amongst the healthiest in the OECD. Surprisingly as the latest ABS figures show, Victoria is now our strongest growing state which is underpinning strong housing demand. On the other hand, we have witnessed a 68% drop in Western Australia’s growth rate since its Everest-like peak in 2011-12 which brought in tens of thousands of people during the mining boom.

With the boom now finished, we have seen an outflux of residents to other states resulting in a weaker housing market with more properties for sale and less demand for them. It’s simple economics. This also explains the woes of Queensland in the last three years, where the property market has undergone very modest growth, partly due to a decline in international immigration. 

Our eight biggest cities now account for over 77% of Australia’s total population of almost 25 million, indicating that we do still love being in the big cities. This is a trend that I do not foresee changing and as our cities continue to experience strong migration levels, I believe that house price growth will continue.

So, despite some open calls to cut immigration levels, I say we should embrace our growing cities. We have arguably some of the world’s most liveable cities and we should plan them for more people and for more growth. We should then use the additional taxation revenue to provide a first-class transport system and better supporting infrastructure which is generally always good for property prices.

So I say in a simple way to my parliamentary friend and those others who think that growth is the problem; it is very clear to me that well-planned growth in all of our cities is actually the solution, and that solution is well within our antipodean grasp.

© Copyright 2018 Dr Shane Geha